The International Monetary Fund says the World Economic Outlook remains uncertain again amid financial sector turmoil, high inflation, ongoing effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and three years of COVID.
At the presentation of its Outlook at the Spring Meetings with the World Bank in Washington D.C, it says the baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024.
Advanced economies are expected to see a pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. It also projects further financial sector stress with global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023 with advanced economy growth falling below 1 percent.
Global headline inflation in the baseline is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices and adds that Inflation’s return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases.
For Nigeria, the IMF projects a three point two percent growth rate for this year, an improvement over its earlier forecast of three percent while a projection for growth stands at three percent for next year. This compares favourably with South Africa at zero point one percent growth forecast this year and one point eight percent next year.
Meanwhile, the CBN at it last month’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting projected that the economy would grow by 3.03 per cent in 2023 as against the three point three seven per cent projected by the Federal Government.
The fund had forecast a three point three percent growth rate for Nigeria last year as against the three point one percent eventually recorded.
Reporting by Biodun Dare, editing by Julian Osamoto and Daniel Adejo